As some of you may remember, this preseason I put together a list of ten shocking predictions I had for the NFL season. With two weeks of down time until the Super Bowl, it's a good time to look back on how I did. Some of them were right on the money while others were the farthest thing from the truth.
1. Troy Smith will be the starting quarterback for the Ravens week one:
What I said: Many people would expect Kyle Boller or possibly Joe Flacco to be starting for the Ravens, but they may have forgotten about Smith. The former Heisman trophy winner last year looked good in limited playing time and so far the team is really impressed with what they have seen in mini camp. Flacco could be the long term answer for the Ravens, but don't be surprised if Smith starts for the next year or two.
Now: If Smith didn't have a Tonsil Infection in the preseason where he lost over 20 pounds, this prediction would have come true. Instead the door opened for rookie Joe Flacco and it never closed. Flacco led the team to the AFC championship game as a rookie while Smith came in for the occasional trick play and got some relief work. Smith is a solid backup who can be effective as a starter but as long as Flacco is at the helm, the Ravens are a contender in the AFC.
2. The Cowboys won't be representing the NFC in the Super Bowl:
What I said: For the last two years, many people have been saying that the Cowboys are the team to beat in the NFC. But come playoff time, they don't beat anyone. This team has loads of talent but for this team to succeed ego's can't be colliding in the locker room and the odds of that happening aren't very good.
Now: I also took some heat for this prediction but it ended up coming true. Not only did the Cowboys not make the Super Bowl, but they didn't make the playoffs either. With a dysfunctional locker room being one of the main problems look for Terrell Owens to join Adam "Pacman" Jones as players who coming in had character concerns to not join the team next year. But if we learned anything out of this it's that the scariest thing in the NFL isn't Ed Reed or Adrian Peterson in the open field, its Ed Werder reporting from Valley Ranch.
3. The Pittsburgh Steelers won't make the playoffs:
What I said: Many people think the Steelers are going to win the AFC North again but if you look inside the numbers, the odds aren't very good. The Steelers have the highest strength of schedule in the league and their offensive line had lots of issues last year and the loss of Alan Faneca won't help. Looking at that, the Browns are the best bet to win this division.
Now: This prediction was way off. Looking back at it the Steelers had a very tough schedule, a weak offensive line and I was on the Browns bandwagon. While the offensive line is still areas of concern, the Steelers had the best defense in the league and are now two weeks away from winning an NFL record 6 Super Bowls.
4. The Buffalo Bills will make the playoffs:
What I said: The Bills had a solid year last year at 7-9 but this year, they can be even better. They now have a clear choice at quarterback in Trent Edwards as well as an every down back in Marshawn Lynch. The receiving corps also improved as the team drafted 6'6 James Hardy in the second round. The defense is also improving as Paul Posluszny will be healthy and Leodis McKelvin should improve the secondary and the return game. Plus they don't have the strongest division. Other than the Patriots, they play the Dolphins and Jets a combined 4 times. If they play .500 football the rest of the year, the Bills would have a 10-6 record which should be good for a wildcard birth in the AFC.
Now: For the first month or so, this prediction was looking really good. Then after Trent Edwards suffered a concussion in week five against the Cardinals, everything went downhill. After that hit, the Bills went 3-8 the rest of the way including losing four of their last 5 games. This team is still very young and if they continue to build through the draft, they should make the playoffs in the next year or two.
5. Jonathan Stewart will win offensive rookie of the year:
What I said: Most people say that Darren McFadden will be the clear choice for rookie of the year honors. But Lane Kiffin already came out and said that he will be using him in a Reggie Bush type role. Stewart is most likely going to be the feature back in Carolina as DeAngelo Williams hasn't proved he's able to carry the ball 20 times a game. Stewart has fresh legs as he wasn't used that much in college so he should see lots of carries this season and could bring a ground game the Panthers haven't had in a while. Speaking of the Panthers...
Now: Usually a rookie season where you run for 836 yards and 10 touchdowns is good enough for rookie of the year honors that was far from the case this year. With two rookie quarterbacks leading their teams to the playoffs and three rookie running backs among the top ten in the league in rushing yards, it's going to be hard to win regardless of the numbers you put up. Stewart has a very bright future though as he showed tons of potential this year that will have Panthers and his fantasy owners next year screaming for more.
6. The Carolina Panthers will make the playoffs:
What I said: The NFC South is a weird division. Every single year, a different team wins it. This year could be the Panthers turn. Jake Delhomme was having a great season until it got cut short by Tommy John Surgery. If his great play carries over, the Panthers are in good shape. Plus they have one of the best receivers in the league in Steve Smith for Delhomme to throw to. If Julius Peppers and the rest of the defense improves, this team could be dangerous in the NFC.
Now: At the time, this is the prediction I took the most heat for but it ended up being spot on. Up until the divisional playoff game where he threw 5 interceptions, Jake Delhomme was doing a good job of getting the ball to his playmakers and managing the game. Part of the team's spark came from the running back tandem of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. It also helps that Williams went from 3rd down back to Superstar in a year running for over 1500 yards with 20 total touchdowns. The defense also looked reminiscent of the Super Bowl year as a rejuvenated Julius Peppers led the team with 14.5 sacks. As long as they have a solid running game and a good defense, the Panthers should be contenders in the NFC.
7. The Oakland Raiders will be a playoff spoiler come December:
What I said: This offseason, the Raiders did a very good job of getting talent through free agency and the draft. JaMarcus Russell now has a full year of the offense under his belt and the defense is much improved with the additions of DeAngelo Hall and Gibril Wilson. The Raiders may not start off that great as they have lots of new players adjusting, but by the end of the year, they can stop some teams from making the playoffs and possibly be a 7 or 8 win team.
Now: It's hard to believe but this prediction was actually right. If it wasn't for their loss to the Raiders in the final week of the season, the Buccaneers would have made the playoffs and Jon Gruden would still be their head coach. The Raiders also had a big win on the road in Denver where they beat the then division leading Broncos 31-10. JaMarcus Russell played very well the last couple of games and if he develops along with young receivers Johnnie Lee Higgins and Chaz Schilens, the Raiders can do even more next year.
8. Keith Rivers will win defensive rookie of the year:
What I said: Like Patrick Willis last year, Rivers has the chance to step in right away and be the leader of a defense. The Bengals have gotten some young defensive talent in the draft the last couple of years and now with the addition of Rivers, they are headed in the right direction.
Now: This prediction didn't fully get to play out as Rivers' season was cut short by a broken jaw courtesy of Steelers receiver Hines Ward. In the 7 games he did play in though, Rivers had 37 tackles and an interception. Even if he was healthy though, Rivers most likely wouldn't have won the award as Patriots linebacker Jerod Mayo had an excellent rookie season. Rivers is a player to watch for in the future and could even breakout in 2009.
9. Drew Stanton will be the starting quarterback for the Lions by the end of the year:
What I said: If Stanton didn't have a season ending knee injury in preseason last year, there was a good chance he could have been starting as a rookie. But Jon Kitna is now 35 and isn't the long term answer. The only problem with Stanton is Mike Martz was spending the preseason last year changing Stanton's mechanics. Now he's gone and he will now have two different offensive coordinators in two years. But if the Lions are going to struggle, there isn't a better time to start the Stanton to Calvin Johnson connection.
Now: With the way things went for the Lions this year, for a while this prediction was looking good. The Lions must not have that much faith in Stanton though as Dan Orlovsky, Drew Henson and Daunte Culpepper fresh off coaching his son's Pop Warner team all started over Stanton. So far Stanton has been plagued by injuries and is slow to learn the offense and with the Lions holding the first pick eying Matt Stafford and Mark Sanchez, Stanton most likely won't be the quarterback of the future anymore in Detroit. The only bright spot for Stanton this year was that his first career pass went for a touchdown and even if he doesn't get his time to shine, he can always tell that to his grand kids.
10. Matt Forte will run for 1,000 yards as a rookie:
What I said: With the release of Cedric Benson, the Bears think they have found the bruising back they were looking for in Forte. Forte should be the feature back for the Bears and with the weak passing game will be the focal point of opposing defenses. His running style is perfect for the cold games in December.
Now: This one was right on the money as Forte ran for 1238 yards along with 8 touchdowns. In the process, he also proved to be a good receiver out of the backfield as he caught 63 passes. Forte is the Bears number one offensive weapon and if they get more talent around him, he will be even more effective.
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